Sleepers, Busts, & Investments

13 weeks. That's all the time we as fantasy football owners have to watch our investments mature into a winning (fictitious) ball club. In that way, the fantasy football world is on the same parallel as the stock market. Rather than coaches, we are brokers. Weighing risk, watching margins, and calculating when to cut bait and run. Throughout the season there will be plenty of times owners will be forced to make snap decisions. Just like in the stock world, the concept of Buy, Sell, or Hold should be always in the back of your mind. Knowing when to execute the three properly, well, that's the tough part. It's what separates the Wolves of Wall Street from the Sheep. Now in no means is this article an indictment on 'overrated' players or an advertisement for the diamonds in the rough; it is just one man's opinion and observation on 3 players who could/should be bought, sold, or held on the practice squad this coming season.

Launchpad McQuack

SLEEPER: Jarvis Landry - WR - Miami Dolphins
The thinking here is that someone in Miami has to catch the football and no one from last year's pass-catchers inspires confidence going forward. Mike Wallace will be the number one receiver simply because of his contract, but Landry could easily ascend to slot duty and/or the opposite side. During the draft Todd McShay said Landry had the best hands and could fit into any system because of his diverse route tree. In Miami he has a great opportunity to get work early and cement his role in the offense.  
BUST: Doug Martin - RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Are Martin's RB1 days numbered?

This is a tough one. Martin is entrenched as the lead-back for the Bucs and will see plenty of production but the touchdowns and carries of his rookie year are just not repeatable. The offense aims to blow the roof off the defense with Mike Evans, VJax, and big TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins so the touchdowns might be sparse. As much as it pains me, a finish inside the top-12 for RB's would be considered a win.  
INVESTMENT: John Brown - WR - Arizona Cardinals  
Here's a guy who fits Bruce Arians' scheme perfectly. A speedster who the coach himself sees as a 'T.Y. Hilton' talent but still needs a little time to perfect his craft. The position he finds himself in this year will allow him to get, a few snaps but mostly special teams work and then burst on the scene after Larry Fitzgerald and his massive cap number are released next season.

Do the Sankey Leg

SLEEPER: Bryce Brown - RB - Buffalo Bills

There could be room to run in Buffalo

Given the roster there are 'safer' sleeper picks but this is an extremely bold pick for me. My gut is telling me that CJ Spiller will be traded away either before the season or in the early weeks. With the trade for Watkins they mortgaged their future but still need to finishing building the team's foundation so a trade for a draft pick(s) makes sense. Also, why else do they fortify a position of strength by keeping Fred (Methuselah) Jackson, then sign Brown and Anthony Dixon? I think Brown will surprise people in a lead role and lets not forget that coach Doug Marrone knows how to run the ball. 
BUST: Arian Foster - RB - Houston Texans
Will he score points every week? Yes. Will he be the focal point of the offense? No. With Gary Kubiak gone so is the zone blocking scheme that created legends like Terrell Davis and most recently Alfred Morris. Foster is a strong, talented running-back but this year I think his production takes a step back. Each year he continues to show a little bit of frailty which makes every owner frustrated and nervous.
INVESTMENT: Blake Bortles - QB - Jacksonville Jaguars
He's not needed on this roster for this season. Tom Brady is the entrenched starter, EJ Manuel was the promising rookie last season who ended up getting hurt before we got to see his true potential. Bortles I think will be handled with kid gloves this first season as there is no urgency for a regime change. Coach Gus Bradley has earned the respect of the administration and is building a winner, Bortles could see time but probably not meaningful time until late in the season.

Dr. Chim Richalds

SLEEPER: Jordan Matthews - WR - Philadelphia Eagles
Here's a guy that I have always loved to watch. At Vanderbilt he made SEC defenses look foolish and let's face it, the NFC East is basically a BIGXII defense. Matthews has the smarts to play all over the field but will probably have slot duties covered with Maclin and Cooper on the outside. He can also win at the point of attack in the jump ball situations. I think 60+ catches is a reasonable expectation, especially in this high-octane offense. Touchdowns will be hard to come by but here's a player that could easily be among the top-12 year-in and year-out.
BUST: Rob Gronkowski - TE - New England Patriots

No soy fiesta anymore

For his career, Gronk scores on every other red zone target he gets. That's insane. So why do I think he is going to bust? All those surgeries and injuries are going to add up and the explosive (for a tight end) play-maker we've seen in the past will be gone. He's going to put up points and be a target of Tom Brady but I get the feeling that many weeks Jordan Reed will be the better starting option.
INVESTMENT: Colt Lyerla - TE - Green Bay Packers
Josh Gordon is a given for the practice squad unless he hopes to use him as a trading piece during the season, but my thinking with Lyerla is he also has off the field issues. Placing him on the PS gives us a chance to see what his role in the offense will be but also would be an easy drop after the season if he flames out.

For Narnia

SLEEPER: Justin Hunter - WR - Tennessee Titans

Hunter is ready to Hunt DB's

Much like Jordan Matthews, Justin Hunter destroyed SEC defenses and was considered by scouts the safer pick of the two Volunteer wideouts in last year's draft. However, while everyone is singing Cordarelle Patterson's praises in Minneapolis; Hunter is left in Nashville poised to surprise a few folks. part of the problem for Hunter is that he's had inconsistent QB play with Jake Locker's injury issues and also being buried behind decent talent in Kendall Wright and Nate Washington. Kenny Britt's departure gives Hunter a big shot to make an impact and his ability to go up and get the ball should make him a lethal deep threat.
BUST: Steven Jackson - RB - Atlanta Falcons
I don't know why there is so much hate for Steven Jackson, especially after that Dick's Sporting Goods commercial. Like other analysts have already spewed, he's on the wrong side of 30 and has racked up some serious mileage. Indiana Jones will tell you how important that is. Much like the final chapter in the Speilbergian archeologist's saga I think Jackson's potentially final season in Atlanta will still be serviceable but his performance will definitely be phoned in.
INVESTMENT: Richard Rodgers - TE - Green Bay Packers
This Rodgers has arrived much too early to see any sort of return this season. Now I could be completely wrong, but I just don't see an Antonio Gates-esque debut from the other Rodgers in Green Bay. It's a safe place on the practice squad as Ebron should easily have the better fantasy year.

Gold Standard

SLEEPER: Terrence West - RB - Cleveland Browns
I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that Ben Tate won't be the guy carrying the ball in Cleveland. Terrence West has all the tools to jump onto the scene and steal the show no matter who is under center in Ohio. Andre Williams also has a shot to be a sleeper for the reigning fantasy champs but that backfield in New York has a few more able bodies and playing time could be limited. I think the Browns know what they have in Tate and they will give West plenty of chances to become the man in Cleveland.  
BUST: Nick Foles - QB - Philadelphia Eagles
Ok, not gonna lie 7 touchdowns in 1 game is very impressive and last season the guy wouldn't throw interceptions. That being said, I wasn't wowed by his performance against tough opposition. Foles to me is a system QB. In Chip Kelly's system he's not asked to make the tough throws. I think he'll miss DeSean Jackson and we will see a lot more bubble screens and two tight end sets. Remember, Vick was the starter last season ahead of Foles so DC's will also have an offseason and plenty of tape on this kid and I think they'll figure him out.
INVESTMENT: Jerick McKinnon - RB - Minnesota Vikings

Could McKinnon be the Future in MN?

He's not ready yet but that doesn't mean this kid doesn't have the ability to tote the rock. If AP goes down with an injury I don't see McKinnon taking the majority snaps out of the backfield like last season with and Matt Asiata, Gerhart, and other people of the street. You can also bet that if the team's greatest player is out, the Vikes will be behind and running the ball will be thrown out of the gameplan.

I Vincitori

SLEEPER: James White - RB - New England
Talk about playing second fiddle to greatness. For those of you who don't follow college football, James White was a RB at Wisconsin. While there he was behind TD record smashing Montee Ball and then forced to split carries with Melvin Gordon (you'll be hearing about this fella). White finds himself in another crowded backfield but it's actually a great position in New England. Stevan Ridley is one fumble away from ending up in New Jersey and Shane Vereen is allergic to staying healthy. His pass protection is above average and who know, he could end up being the next Kevin Faulk?
BUST: Tavon Austin - WR - St. Louis Rams

The college tape is explosive and we did see glimpses last season but I don't know if Tavon will be the fantasy stud everyone envisioned he'd be coming out of West Virginia. Having Sam Bradford could make a difference, but I don't think the offense scares anyone making him the focus whenever he takes the field. No last year showed that he didn't need many touches to put up points and the homerun threat is real, but would you feel comfortable starting him on your roster?
INVESTMENT: Lache Seastrunk - RB - Washington National Football Team
Here's a guy that has tons of potential but landed in a bad situation. Alfred Morris sits atop the depth chart with Roy 'You Say Goodbye, I say' Helu as a change of pace back, then you have last year's IR stash Chris Thompson who RGIII claims will be used as a 'Sproles' type RB. That means there are too many chiefs and not enough... Indians. A stay on the practice squad means an opportunity to see if there is a role for Seastrunk in DC or whether he's just the next great college RB to flame out in the pros.

Luck Dynasty

SLEEPER: Christine Michael - RB - Seattle Seahawks
This is not a homer pick. Based on the very real possibility that Marshawn hangs up his cleats if he doesn't get paid, Michael walks into a premier position to put up points (that is alliteration for you folks). Now as a Seahawks fan I don't see Lynch retiring, however, as with Steven Jackson the mileage adds up and Beastmode can only take so many hits. I think nagging injuries will translate to more carries for C-Mike and this team isn' going to just stop running the ball. Turbin is still ahead of him on the depth chart but he's more of a 3rd down/change of pace back than the lead dog.
BUST: Jason Witten - TE - Dallas Cowboys
Everyone is saying how Tony Romo is going to blow up in the Scott Linehan offense and that means fantasy goodies for his weapons. I think that's true to an extent and for Jason Witten, being a top tier TE is about to come to an end. I think Gavin Escobar will emerge as will second receiver Terrance Williams (more on that below) at the expense of Witten. Will there be weeks were he scores you points? Yes. But I'd start looking for a younger option.

Can he come back from this?

INVESTMENT: Marcus Lattimore - RB - San Francisco 49ers
This has got to be frustrating. You spend a top pick on a 'Redshirt' playmaker knowing you're going to sit on him until next season only to watch him lose his spot to another incredible playmaker. There is no denying Lattimore's talent but two gruesome knee injuries make it hard to believe there can be a solid return on the investment. One more year on the IR/Practice Squad should show us whether or not the potential will ever be realized.

Manning Gravy Train

SLEEPER: Zach Ertz - TE - Philadelphia Eagles

Now those are serious ball skills

Even with Foles in the bust category I think there will still be plenty of production from the pass catchers in Philedelphia's offense. I think Ertz was under-utilized last season and this year his skill set will be a target of the Foles and Chip Kelly. Brent Celek is still ahead of him on the depth chart but reports out of training camp say the Eagles will employ plenty of two TE sets. This should help the run game as well by keeping the defense on the field and breathing hard.
BUST: Reggie Wayne - WR - Indianapolis Colts
Reggie Wayne has had an illustrious career but I don't see him coming back this season and playing at a high level. His smarts will compensate for his lack of burst but this is now T.Y.'s team. I also think that if Hakeem Nicks is even remotely healthy, he could show shades of his former self and thrive as the number two option in this offense. There will be games where he catches 6 or 7 balls but I don't see him breaking 100 yards in a game or scoring more than 3 touchdowns this season.
INVESTMENT: Troy Niklas - TE - Arizona Cardinals
Niklas was a pass catching fiend as a 'Golden Domer' and while he does find himself in an offense without a talented TE, the scheme in which Arians plays is not conducive to the big fellas with the soft hands. Heath Miller carved out a nice role for himself under Arians tutelage but both Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener struggled to produce fantasy relevant numbers in Indianapolis. Last year in Arizona the position was non-existent. Hopefully that changes but for now, it's best to wait and see.

Milk Steak

SLEEPER: Terrance Williams - WR - Dallas Cowboys
Remember when I hinted that Romo's pass catchers will see a bump thanks to Linehan? Well, while Dez is picking up the double teams Williams will be on the opposite side taking full advantage of the weak coverage. Williams made a splash last season but I still think he's in Sleeper territory and very well could make an Alshon Jeffrey-esque transcendence into elite wide receiver territory. That's a bold claim I know, but given the shortcomings on the defensive side there will be plenty more shootouts in Texas.
BUST: Marshawn Lynch - RB - Seattle Seahawks

Will he retire or just holdout?

This one hurts. For the past three seasons he's been churning through defensive lines and has taken a beating doing it. Like I've said before, the mileage is just to much to ignore. The holdout also muddies the waters as Marshawn is one of the most bizarre personalities in the NFL. Even if he ends his holdout, the fact that he's not happy makes me worried about his attitude towards taking and giving the punishment Beastmode is going to bestow. He may be all 'bout that action boss, but this very well could be the end of the rainbow in Seattle (and I doubt there are Skittles at the end of it)
INVESTMENT: Cody Latimer - WR - Denver Broncos
Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez, Brandon Stokely, and Ricky Preohl. All unknown Wideouts that Mr. Manning made into fantasy rupees. Four of those guys are white. Cody Latimer is a better prospect than any of them and has a better skill set to work with. Will he see time this season? Only if someone gets hurt, but he could push for snaps next year. Especially if the Broncos have to make tough decisions when their salary cap shopping spree debt needs to be repaid.

Natty Bohs

SLEEPER: Allen Robinson - WR - Jacksonville Jaguars

A-Rob has all the tools to succeed

This is a guy who was very high on my draft board thanks to his recording setting numbers in Happy Valley and because of the position he found himself in Jacksonville. He's big and has good wheels, so if Chad Henne can resurrect a smidge of his glory (are there any?) days someone has to catch the balls right? I know Marquis Lee is also in the picture and as a pure talent is more gifted but staying through the Sandusky situation and being a senior leader for your team says something. The injury to flight-footed Cecil Shorts III also opens up the door for both to be on the field and I believe Robinson will prove he's the one that should stay on the field when Cecil returns.  
BUST: Dwayne Bowe - WR - Kansas City Chiefs
Even when he helped win my first and only fantasy championship (USF Young & Old 2009) I've never felt confident in Dwayne Bowe. He along with Vincent Jackson just are too hot and cold, letting you down at the worst time and scoring in droves when victory was secured Thursday night. I think Kansas City's resurgence was a fluke and I think they fall hard this year. Will Bowe and his hefty contract stay focused and competitive? Or will he take plays off and dream about his offseason vacation home in the Bahamas? I say it's the latter.
INVESTMENT: Donte Moncrief - WR - Indianapolis Colts
I've had my eyes fixed on Moncrief for sometime now. A few of you will remember he was on my Championship College Fantasy Team along with several other studs and sleepers currently in the NFL. Now as I pointed out earlier, I don't believe Reggie Wayne is long for this league. What I didn't mention is that I believe Moncrief will eventually supplant him. Keyword though is eventually, as in next season, so the practice squad is a perfect fit.

Size Does Matter

SLEEPER: Tre Mason - RB - St. Louis Rams

He's ready for his closeup!

I don 't get the Rams backfield at all. Many owners wasted draft picks and roster spots on Isaiah Pead, Benny Cunningham, and Zac Stacy. But for some reason the rollin' bowlin' ball that is Zac Stacy was able to put up numbers for the lucky chum who needed a filler that week and now looks like the smartest person alive (I mean, that's why you did it! am I right?). As I said, I don't know anything about the Rams backfield, but what I do know is that Tre Mason is leaps and bounds a better runningback than Zac Stacy and I believe the two will split carries early on but it's going to be Tre Mason who may save Jeff Fisher's job in Los Ang... err I mean St. Louis.
BUST: Vernon Davis - TE - San Francisco 49ers
This is not a spite pick. Every year Vernon is on the list at number 3 overall for tight ends and honestly I don't see it. He destroys weak defenses but when the pressure is on, he disappears. Now that could be on his QB but I don't think this year will translate to consistent fantasy output. Harbaugh want's to open up the offense and throw more this year. When I hear that, I see more passes to wide receivers NOT named Crabtree. Stevie Johnson is in the bay area now and Anquan needs his looks too, I just don't see it being so Vernon Crabs centric this season.
INVESTMENT: Derek Carr - QB - Oakland Raiders
This pick is purely because it's all that's there on the roster. Every other option I could see being used to trade (which you can't do with practice squaders) or used in some capacity this season. Derek Carr may not play this season even if Oakland loses, it would take an injury to Matt Schaub for Carr to get snaps in my opinion. So Practice Squad makes perfect sense until we actually get to see if he can do anything other than get sacked like his brother.

Tom-A-Hank

SLEEPER: Carlos Hyde - RB - San Francisco 49ers

Kendall and LaMichael didn't stretch

Everyone was probably shocked that the 49ers took another running back with their 2nd pick this year. There were probably equally shocked to find themselves in the position of actually needing to use Carlos Hyde this season. For the past three years in redraft leagues I have avoid Frank Gore because of the proverbial cliff that aging running backs tend to go over. Well I have been wrong for 3 years but I may be right this season in saying that Carlos Hyde will get meaningful snaps and outperform the seemingly ageless Gore. I could see them in a situation like AP and Chester Taylor, where they both put up good numbers but the guy you really want is Hyde.
BUST: Kyle Rudolph - TE - Minnesota Vikings
The Hamburger Helper is getting so much love because of the Tight End Whisperer Norval Turner. I think the hype this year will push him up on draft boards but I still don't like the QB situation (Cleveland didn't have one either but still) and don't believe it will translate to stellar numbers for the big fella. I think he'll be a redzone beast and score touchdowns but I don't see 6 to 7 catches and pushing 80 yards each week. I know I'm taking the contrary opinion to most of the fantasy world but that's what my gut is saying. I'm happy to be wrong though!
INVESTMENT: Isaiah Crowell - RB - Cleveland Browns
Here's a guy that was a 5 star recruit who signed with Georgia and didn't adjust well to the College scene. At the FCS level he was a stud and now finds himself on the Browns and is turning heads. However, right now coaches feel he's more of a change of pace back and will push Chris Ogbannaya for snaps but may need to show a little more of that Blue Chip luster to get in the position to be the bell-cow.