Dalton's Stock Takes Another Dip...

After moving on from Peyton Manning, the Gravy Train decided to pick up a Red Rifle. In trading for Andy Dalton, GM Ronnie Hawkins is scraping the bottom of the barrel in hopes of gaining some competency at the quarterback position. Joe Flacco sits atop the depth chart but Dalton very well could challenge for starts if the Ravens don't address the lack of wide receivers in the upcoming draft. 

So long Mr. Cooper

It also helps that the gingerbread man didn't come at a high price. All it took was a 2018 third round selection to get the Natty Bohs to pull the trigger. Honestly, Dalton was probably going to be cut due to the influx of David Carr and Nick Foles so it was smart of GM Mike Rhode to get something for nothing. 

The move also signaled the end for Riley Cooper who was released shortly after the trade was finalized. Cooper crashed back to earth after a breakout season in Chip Kelly's high powered offense.     

Bunde Pulls the Plug on Kaepernick

After a down year in Santa Clara will Kaep get his groove back?

It's amazing how quickly one can fall of the proverbial cliff. However that seems to be the status quo in Santa Clara these days. I half expect the next ESPN ticker to read "49ers moving to Los Angeles." What I didn't expect was to see a potential franchise fantasy quarterback being dealt for spare parts.

Fresh off a 2012 season that saw the aforementioned 49ers narrowly losing the Super Bowl, Colin Kaepernick was all the rage and had taken the fantasy world by storm. A dual-threat that help jumpstart many fantasy rosters. Could this guy be Michael Vick 2.0? The team formerly know as Dr. Chim Richald's owned both Aaron Rodgers and Kaepernick, so GM Brett Bunde was faced with a dilemma: which piece do you move on from? Now in March of 2015 both players are set to make their hay on someone else's farm. To be fair, trading Rodgers helped get part of this team's namesake on the roster but moving on from Kaep not two years later seems like a desperate divorce.

In looking at the trade, it seems like it wasn't so much about the players as it was the collateral. Bunde needed someway to move into the first two rounds of the upcoming draft and try to capitalize on this year's wealth of talent. A third next year at this point would be similar to a late 4th rounder in this year's draft making the move necessary, but still unfortunate that a franchise player like Kaepernick commands so little value in the market. 

Will West lead a crowded Cleveland backfield?

Gold Standard needed some depth at quarterback after moving on from Nick Foles. In Acquiring Andre Ellington, the Towson terror Terrance West was made expendable. On his new team West will probably end up at best as a bye week filler, but with the likes of Le'Veon Bell, Jeremy Hill, and a resurgent Lamar Miller makes it a doubtful supposition.

The big questions in this trade will be: which player(s) will exceed expectations? What will the 2015 draft turn in to? It's early in the year, but the moves so far are definitely looking golden for Gold Standard. Keenan & Robs? Bunde, like the rest of us still have some work to do.    

Natty Bohs Fleeced by Gold Standard

Gold Standard GM Jonathan Wachter making a deal

An equal and successful trade should leave both sides feeling like they've won the deal. That being said, I have a hard time believing the Natty Bohs can feel confident in their most recent roster re-shuffling. Every owner is free to make whatever moves they wish, but I just find it puzzling to trade assets with value on the uptick for those who's value may have been inflated by their offensive system.

Ellington helps the Gold Standard backfield

The first move came on the day before NFL Free Agency began with Gold Standard GM Jonathan Wachter trading his 2013 Fantasy Super Bowl Champ QB Nick Foles to the Natty Bohs in exchange for RB Andre Ellington. Right off the bat, the trade looked one-sided as Ellington is at worst a low-end RB2 with tremendous flex potential any given week. Foles on the other hand, has failed to stay healthy and was unable to replicate the historic touchdown prowess last season at the helm of Chip Kelly's offense. With a roster of lottery tickets, Natty Bohs GM Mike Rhode obviously wanted to ensure one of the QBs on his roster delivered the goods and felt Ellington was equally a lottery ticket give his health and usage concerns.

Then, just one day after trade for Foles in fantasy, the former Philly quarterback packed his bags for St. Louis. This is a move you'd never expect to happen and can't really plan for, but in fantasy it's all about minimizing risk. So with that in mind, why make a big trade one day before free agency frenzy begins? One could argue that there was talks of Adrian Peterson landing in the desert (there's still a chance) making Ellington expendable, but as it stands today Wachter was able to improve his shaky backfield by dealing a shaky stock. But that's just the beginning... 

Again before the league year commenced, Rhode made another deal with Wachter to acquire the Peyton Manning-less and Jacksonville-bound Julius Thomas.

Can Julius thrive with the Jags?

This move makes more sense as it was a position of need for the Bohs, even if it means acquiring a player that will see a drop in production. However, Wachter gets back a tremendous asset in Allen Robinson and a second round pick in this year's talent loaded draft. We can sit and debate whether or not Robinson will live up to his hype and draft selection; but moving back fourteen spots this year means Rhode's pick now comes behind four of his other selections. Unless he maneuvers some more, he may not even use the pick.

The only win I can see for Rhode is the two picks in 2016 (A second and third round selection) but given the track record of Wachter's ball club, they are bound to be later in the rounds. I don't want to berate someone for trying to improve their squad, and I know I've pulled some questionable trades in the past, but in my opinion, on paper, Gold Standard wins this one easily.  

Mock Draft 1.0

      The 2015 NFL Draft is still almost two fulls months away and a lot is going to change in that time period. First off, I'll be extremely sleep deprived as Baby #2 will have made his grand entrance by then. Secondly, there will probably be a trade or two that changes the first round of the dynasty draft as no one can sit still. Trying to predict what will happen is like the weather. Everyday you have a 50/50 shot at being right. However, by laying out what I think will happen can either sway other owners into drafting players they otherwise would not or it will help reaffirm drafting of said player. I know this is dangerous waters for me to embark on because it does give the rest of you a glimpse into my war room. But let's face it, I don't pick until the end of round two so guessing what will happen in round one shouldn't impact my decision making.  Before we get started, I am laying out this mock based on talent and where I think players will end up. Like I said earlier, a lot of things will change in the next two months. 

(1.1) Hawkins' TBD Team:
Todd Gurley RB

Take away that ACL injury and Gurley runs his way into the top 5 overall in the upcoming draft. Running backs are being diminished by many NFL teams but Gurley is a talent that cannot be overlooked. There are several teams that could use Gurley as a day one starter but he could also land on a team like Seattle where he could 'redshirt' and rehab that ACL further. There is a concern that he could end up like Marcus Lattimore, but Gurley's injury was far less gruesome than the one Lattimore sustained. He's the closest thing to Beastmode in this draft and Hawkins team is desperate for a bell-cow back. With only one pick in the first three rounds, this one has to count. Gurley or whichever back lands a starting role should be Hawkins' first selection.   

(1.2) Size Does Matter:
Melvin Gordon III RB
You could make a case for wide receiver at this spot, but looking at the roster, someone to tote the rock is the most glaring need. Adrian Peterson is the stalwart and there are nice pieces with Mason, Blount, and Sproles; but MGIII could very well be the first back selected in April. Regardless, Gordon will find himself on a team ready to challenge for lead-back duties. Some say he has a fumbling issue and others are concerned with the lack of success that Badger runningbacks have found in the NFL. I think they are both moot points. The Talent is undeniable and Smarty should make the 'smart' move and draft Gordon. 

(1.3) Average Joe's (from Natty Bohs):
Kevin White WR
Like a fat kid going back for seconds, he doesn't need it. That won't stop the Average Joe's from selecting the 1-year phenom out of West Virginia, Kevin White. He's got everything you want in an outside wide receiver and at the combine he flashed (literally) his wheels as well. I am very concerned that he may prove to be a developmental talent given that he only played one year at the top level of the NCAA and tended to shrink a little against top defenses, but the upside is too good to pass up. The Joe's really could go anywhere with this pick, but I see the top two running backs being gone and the Joe's will gladly gobble up the wide receiver that lands in the best spot. My guess? Mr. White takes Mr. White.

(1.4) Gold Standard (from Launchpad McQuack):
Jay Ajayi RB
Here's one that I think will catch people by surprise. It's no secret that Gold Standard is pretty much set at wide receiver for the next decade. The one gap lies at running back. There is plenty of lottery tickets but the squad lacks a true number one at this point in the game. I think Gold Standard goes after a guy that can do it all and that's the Baby Beastmode from Boise. He may not be Marshawn Lynch just yet but he possesses all the tools to do it. He reminds me a little more of Le'Veon Bell in that he's just as dangerous, powerful, and nimble when he catches the ball out of the backfield. He's hard to take down and is a very patient runner but how will he fair against good competition? Gold Standard needs a bell-cow, they hope they'll find a beast in Ajayi.

(1.5) Milk Steak:
Ameer Abdullah RB
I wrote in a previous article that running backs go fast in the dynasty drafts and I'm not backing down from that sentiment. Other than Marshawn Lynch, Milk Steak needs help in the ball carrier department. Ole has already invested in wide receiver and needs to go running back. Abdullah I imagine will fall a bit in the draft and end up on a great team that will accentuate his skill set. The team that gets this guy will have found a gem, as he's one of the most physical runners you can find for a person his size. He has no red flags other than his smaller than prototype size and a few too many fumbles. That being said, I could see him getting scooped up by one of these teams that has a hole in the backfield. Abdullah will fill it, given the opportunity.  

(1.6) Tom-A-Hank:
Amari Cooper WR
With running backs going faster than iPhones on release day, Tom-A-Hank will get probably the most polished and pro-ready receiver in this draft at six overall. The team's true need is probably running back, but at this spot Cooper is too good to pass up. Last year, Tom-A-Hank reached on running back Kadeem Carey and allowed several extremely talented players to fall much farther than they should. That won't happen again. Cooper will end up leading either a revitalized Oakland offense (Julius Thomas? Randall Cobb?) or St. Louis. He's got the goods to be Offensive ROY given the right situation.

(1.7) Luck Dynasty (from Keenan & Robs):
Jeremy Langford RB

The Wednesday night trade for Brandin Cooks almost seals the notion that Luck Dynasty will be looking at running back (so will the rest of the first round drafters apparently) with their first pick. I think Langford fits the bill for this team. He's drawing criticism right now as a one-dimensional running back, but I don't see it. He showed up in the biggest games (137yds, 3 tds on 18 carries against THE Ohio State) and performed incredibly even when facing a stacked box. He's also a good pass catcher and protector. I think taking a tight end here is a bit of a reach and grabbing Langford will be a fail-safe in case the runners behind Charles and Lacy don't pan out.  

(1.8) Tom-A-Hank (from Average Joe's):
Tevin Coleman RB
After grabbing Amari Cooper two picks earlier, Tom-A-Hank needs to go after a running back. This is just a guess, but I think Coleman will end up on a team that doesn't have a true day one starter on the roster. The Big Ten this year was loaded at running back and probably it's best player (Ezekiel Elliot) isn't draft eligible. You can't look at Coleman's stats and say that this year was a fluke. The combine was a little disappointing but the underwear olympics shouldn't be the deciding factor in drafting a talented player. Coleman has the talent. 

(1.9) Average Joe's (from Luck Dynasty):
TJ Yeldon RB
After scooping up Kevin White earlier, the Average Joe's will look to add the best available player to the roster. Tight End and Quarterback here would be a reach, leaving TJ Yeldon as the best option to bolster the Joe's already potent squad. The Joe's have familiarity with Nick Saban's Alabama boys. They picked Eddie Lacy two years ago and unfortunately cut ties too soon. This time will be different. Yeldon follows the footsteps of Ingram, Richardson, and the aforementioned Lacy as big power-running backs. Here's hoping he has a career more similar to the Latter of those gentlemen.  

(1.10) For Narnia:
Dorial Green-Beckham WR
This is where the run on running backs will start to cause problems. Do you go with need or draft the best available? My feeling is that For Narnia will pick up another talented wide receiver and break the streak of ball carrier dominance in this draft. DGB is raw but has everything you want in a wideout. Size, Hands, and Speed. He didn't have the fastest times in Indy, but he's also been out of football for a year. There are going to be plenty of pass catchers drafted in the actual NFL draft and DGB could end up in a very fantasy friendly environment making him too good to pass up For Narnia. 

(1.11) Gold Standard:
Javorius 'Buck' Allen RB
 Like I said earlier, Gold Standard is set for the next decade at wide receiver. Yes, the options will look tempting and he may try to trade back or select a guy like Devin Smith or DeVante Parker in hopes of a trade, but I think he goes after another running back and plays the numbers game at that position. Buck Allen will probably be drafted as a complementary back but in today's NFL it's almost impossible to find teams willing to give the ball to just one guy. I think even in a time-share Allen will make the most of his opportunities and his skills as a pass catcher makes him very intriguing.

(1.12) Luck Dynasty (from I Vincitori):
Jameis Winston QB
This is where fantasy meets reality as Jay Cutler is currently being shopped by both the Bears and Luck Dynasty. My thinking here is that Winston will be the first quarterback selected and he walks into a great situation in Tampa Bay. Luck Dynasty has a history of drafting rookie gunslingers and then parlaying them into lucrative trades down the road. They did it with Cam Newton and by selecting Famous Jameis, they could be setting themselves up for a great bye-week replacement or future trade bait down the road.      

The Rich get Richer

Buried beneath the avalanche of overnight trades was a little maneuver that truly benefited each recipient. Looking forward to this year's crop of gifted pass catchers, the Average Joe's sent wide receiver Brandin Cooks to Luck Dynasty in exchange for a pair of early round picks. It's still early but it's looking like a true win-win.

The Average Joe's have always made it a priority to acquire as many picks as possible to maximize the chances of drafting the next stud. Now it's debatable that Joe's GM Joseph White dealt away one of his studs in Cooks, but the 9th overall selection could very well yield an equal caliber player. The running back position has always gone quickly in past dynasty drafts leaving plenty of talent to be scooped up. It's also a position that is hard to predict success for. "We went with (Bishop) Sankey last year and it was disappointing." White said. "We are looking to use these picks to bring in talented backs who are ready to start today." Running back is deep in 2015 but Kiper and McShay aren't the only ones who think there could easily be six wide receivers drafted in the first round of April's draft and those who fall to later rounds in reality are still worthy of an early fantasy selection. Running back may be the Average Joe's priority, but the draft will probably dictate otherwise.  

Additional picks are great but are the Joe's losing a valuable asset in a very young wideout? I believe they are. I wasn't alone in thinking Cooks had the potential to be last year's offensive rookie of the year. He was well on pace to do just that until a thumb injury sent him to IR and forced him to sit out the remaining six games. Cooks finished the 2014 season with 53 catches for 550 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for 73 yards and one touchdown. However, in 11 games the player who would go on to take the offensive ROY made Cooks look like a total bust. Odell Beckham Jr.'s highlights and stats speak for themselves. ODB's presence is also a big reason White was willing to part with Cooks. Luck Dynasty could have used the pick on whatever wideout fell to him at ninth overall but GM Keegan Warwick likes to mitigate risk when he can. "The draft is a crapshoot, we know what we're getting with Brandin." said Warwick. Cooks joins a rotation that already boasts Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and Sammy Watkins (plus a bevy of other talented individuals). This move gives tremendous depth to possibly the best roster in the league. Will that translate to a trophy in 2015? or will the Joe's find a diamond in the draft that returns the trophy to their Mantle? We will just have to wait and see.

While You Were Sleeping...

Did you feel that? A shift in the landscape and and end of an era. What started as a swap of picks and mediocre talent quickly escalated into a series of coordinated trades. It was fantasy football's version of the Tet Offensive. Before the dust settled, the team formerly known as the Manning Gravy Train had shipped off it's namesake and in it's place is depth. So where did it start?

March 4th 8:16pm
The Manning Gravy Train acquires Stedman Bailey from Luck Dynasty in exchange for picks. Luck Dynasty GM Keegan Warwick is able to move up eight spots in the 3rd round of this year's draft while the Gravy Train acquires an additional fourth round selection(4.9). In all honesty the move doesn't seem to benefit one side over the other, but having multiple picks in the later rounds of 2015 for Hawkins is probably the biggest takeaway.

March 5th 6:15am
The bombshell. The Gravy Train GM Ronald Hawkins decided it was time to pull the plug on the 5-time MVP Peyton Manning. Paired with Manning is decrepit running back Darren McFadden and in exchange Hawkins acquired Vernon Davis and Reggie Bush.

Manning waves to fans as he leaves the Train behind

"This is looking like Peyton's last year and it makes sense that we cut him loose and improve other weak spots on the roster." said Hawkins.
Manning joins a crowded system in Eric Smart's backfield. He'll more than likely supplant Matt Ryan and give Ryan Tannehill more time to perfect the offense in Miami. The odd man out is looking like Matt Cassel, who after yesterday's news was looking like a decent option. Smart may hold out for a trade but a release is a more likely option.
Now for Hawkins' new toys, Davis is coming off a historic down year in which he was a complete afterthought in Jim Harbaugh's anemic offense. With Harbaugh back in Ann Arbor, the hope is that Jim Tomsula will unleash his quarterback and return Davis to All-Pro form. Bush on the Other hand is a bigger question. He's been released by the Lions and if finding a new home wasn't hard enough he's also been called out by former team mate Darren Sharper who is currently being investigated on rape charges.
"We aren't worried about Reggie at this time." Hawkins said of his new acquisition. A fair argument, but all it takes is a warrant to quickly change that tune.

March 5th 7:31am
Parlayed the pick acquired in the Stedman Bailey trade (3.9) into Roddy White. Hawkins also threw an extra 3rd round pick in the 2016 to seal the deal. On paper this looks like a good move for Hawkins chances in 2015 but you have to wonder about the future. To make room for White, Hawkins served Reggie Wayne his papers. It only makes sense with Manning gone, his one-time favorite receiver also gets sacked.   

In all honesty, moving on from Manning looks to be like the wrong move at this point in the game. Here's a player who is still one of the best options at the position and he's shipped off for spare parts. In my opinion it would have been wiser to let the captain go down with the ship. Yes, the team acquired something for nothing, but I don't believe Bush and Davis offer any long term gains. That being said, Hawkins does own the first pick in this year's draft and he could address any position with it. He would be wise to seek a trade that turns the pick into 2 first round picks and build for the future. But that's what makes this game so much fun to watch and to play. The moves caught most of the league by storm, but will they end up being successful? Time will tell, but to me it really looks like the same result of Tet.

Free Agency 2015: Dominoes Start Fallin'

It's long overdue.
Like Harper Lee's sequel or Pete Rose's Hall of Fame induction, I am finally putting the quill to the parchment... well in digital form. The Dynasty Dispatch is back! Hopefully this year I'll be able to keep up.

      On March 10th at 4 p.m. Eastern Standard Time the flood gates will open. The 2015 NFL season will officially be open and free agents allowed to sign with the teams of their choosing. Many a players fate will be altered. Some will be enhanced by a new environment, others will whither as a cast off to a wasteland the locals either call the 'Land of Oak' or 'Village of Jackson'. Even with this countdown in place, there has already been plenty of movement. Several owners have sacrificed veterans to the gods of the Cap and now are poised to throw those savings at the player they believe will take their team to Santa Clara in 2016.  

"What happens in REALITY, casts waves throughout FANTASY" 

      In a normal year, this week doesn't carry too much excitement, let alone an out-of-nowhere, league shattering, bewilderment inducing trade. But that's exactly what we got when LeSean McCoy was sent packing for Buffalo in exchange for Kiko Alonso. Now, I will let the national pundits hash out the ramifications of this deal because we have bigger fish to fry. What happens in reality, cast waves throughout fantasy.
      Not even a day after this trade (which is not official until the 10th) was announced, Joseph White of the re-branded Average Joe's sent the heir-apparent Darren Sproles and the ageless wonder Antonio Gates to Size Does Matter in exchange for a second round pick (14th overall). The move gives the Joe's an increased arsenal of picks to either move up in the draft or simply stockpile potential. There is bound to be roster turnover as the Joe's now own three Buffalo 'Backs and this draft has depth at the position.

      For Size Does Matter, it gives the team a stop gap at running back as Sproles will be more than serviceable in Chip Kelly's offense. Is he the long term option? No, but the pick surrendered wouldn't have yielded a better starting option for this year. It also helps that wheelin' and dealin' front office guru Eric Smart made a move to secure a late second round pick on Monday evening from the Natty Bohs in exchange for Derek Carr. Smart only moves back 10 spaces but acquires two serviceable options at two pressing needs. Before the deal can be finalized Smart still needs to make a corresponding roster cut. All signs point to Matt Cassell being given his papers, but like the McCoy/Alonso deal, you never know what can happen.

      The third wheel in this first wave of roster moves are the Natty Bohs. Acquiring Derek Carr may seem insignificant but given the history of RG3 and Andy Dalton, a young gunslinger with upside is a good pickup. Only Mariota and Winston possess the skills to start day one in this year's draft and without a 1st round selection, the Bohs would be forced to go after Hundley or a less favorable choice in the later rounds. Oakland is desolate, but they have money to spend and if Carr gets some weapons he could take a step forward. But in all seriousness, it's Oakland, and that's a very big IF.