Normally, I would try to write a clever lead-in paragraph about trusting your gut or how to mitigate risk and I'd do it with a clever metaphor like how squirrels never take brown acorns because the know they won't last through the winter. I will refrain this time and we will just jump right into the final mock draft of the 2016 season. Enjoy and I look forward to Tuesday night.
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| Someone's confident he'll go 1.1 |
Ezekiel Elliot –
Cowboys
Previous Pick: Ezekiel Elliot
Once again nothing has changed. If anything, Zeke's value went up after he was selected fourth overall by the Cowboys last Thursday. Here is a rare player that not only locks up a RB position for the foreseeable future, but he also slides in as a potential top 10 player this fall. The only thing that gives me pause is Elliott's alma mater. The last two high profile backs to come out of 'The' Ohio State have flashed big on year one and then never truly lived up to the hype on a consistent basis. That being said, Zeke is a much more complete back than either Carlos Hyde or Beanie Wells were and he should have no problem ripping off yards and touchdowns behind the Dallas O-Line.
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| Who's throwing you the ball Corey? |
(1.2) Average Joes
(from NattyBohs)
Corey Coleman -
Browns
Previous Pick: Derrick Henry
Right off the bat we go from a sure thing to questionable pick after questionable pick. In all honesty, there are several arguments to be made here for the Average Joes. Running Back is probably a top priority but because of the way 31 teams chose to draft, we have no clear cut RB selection. Derick Henry is an option but after drafting TJ Yeldon last year, Alabama backs are on probation. The Joes also do not waste picks. They will draft the best available player which this year is a wide receiver. Sterling Shepard is in a great spot but with OBJ already on the roster the best option for upside here is Corey Coleman. Someone has to catch the ball in Cleveland right? Targets are up for grabs and the Browns will be trailing... A lot! If things break right, Coleman could be the trade bait used to bring in the Running Back talent not found in this year's draft crop.
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| Is Henry the next Eddie George? |
(1.3) For Narnia (from
Coach Dadbod)
Derrick Henry – Titans
Previous Pick: Laquon Treadwell
Again, this doesn't get any easier. Talent-wise the top picks of this draft should probably be used on a wide receiver, but the Narnians are in desperate need of someone to tote the rock. Had he landed in quite possibly any other spot, Henry would have gone at two, so I guess there's the silver lining for AJ. Henry should see goal line work as a rookie and at best push to get 10-15 touches a game but this is a true committee in Tennessee. That being said, look back a few years... Or closer to a decade maybe and you'll find Lendale White and CJ-prior2K both were viable fantasy options as the smash and dash tandem. Henry is obviously more of the smash option and should collect close to double digit TDs but the best case scenario is that Henry runs away with the job later in the season and secures it for the rest of his rookie contract. Fingers crossed though.
(1.4) Fat Eddie (from
For Narnia)
Josh Doctson – Redskins
Previous Pick: Josh Doctson
This one could go several different ways but based on how the previous two picks have gone, the P90X Eddies will select the player with the most upside. Everything screams Running Back with this pick but now is not the time or place to cast your net into the ocean of uncertainty that is this year's crop of ball-carriers. Doctson has the tools to be a WR1 but will be buried on the Redskins roster for this year. On draft day all the analysts were quick to point out that both Garcon and DeSean Jackson are in the last years of their perspective deals and rather than resign the aging all-stars they'll stick with emerging talents Jamison Crowder and (hopefully) Doctson. The Eddies took a hit with the sudden retirement of Calvin Johnson and yes, Crowder is on the roster but he probably factors more as slot specialist going forward with Doctson in the fold.
(1.5) DaBert
Laquon Treadwell - Vikings
Previous Pick: DeVontae Booker
With two wideouts serving suspensions, one for an entire year, the other TBD, it makes sense to replenish the stock and hope this pass catcher can avoid toking up of the field. I have never been a believer in the Treadwell hype this season, but he's still a tremendous athlete. Yes he disappointed in his 40 times but the other elements of the game make up for the lack of elite speed. Honestly, the biggest fantasy conundrum isn't him, it's his Quarterback in Minnesota. Much like the first couple years of Russell Wilson's career in Seattle, Teddy Bridgewater is not asked to throw the ball and truly carry the offense, that's Arian Peterson's job. So Treadwell's ceiling is limited by the lack of an open air attack. That being said, there will still be opportunities and if Teddy's game continues to expand, when AP is done the offense could look to Treadwell and others much like it did with the likes of Cris Carter and Randy Moss.
(1.6) Gold Standard
Kenneth Dixon –
Ravens
Previous Pick: Jonathan Williams
Before last year' draft, Gold Standard practically stole Allen Robinson for peanuts. It was a move that helped him endure the loss of Dez Bryant. Now with the healthy quartet of Dez, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, and Mr. Robinson bolstering the stable of Running Backs is extremely pertinent. Kenneth Dixon makes the most sense as the next back to be selected. Yes, there is competition for the job in Baltimore but Justin Forsett is coming off a broken leg, Buck Allen is a multi-faceted back but lacks pass protection skills, Taliaferro is still there, Terrence West saw work last year, and oh yeah Trent Richardson... Maybe stay away right? No, none of those players are as rounded as Dixon. West, Richardson, and Taliaferro won't make the squad and Dixon's style of play, along with his elite pass-catching skills fit perfectly into OC Trestman's gameplan. I'll admit there is some risk, but the reward is a player who can score points on the ground and the air.
(1.7) Milk Steak
Sterling Shepard – Giants
Previous Pick: Kenneth Dixon
Sterling is my boy. Maybe I just have a thing for Oklahoma Wide Receivers. I thought Ryan Broyles was a stud, but when you watched Shepard play you could tell this dude is going to ball out in the NFL. I think he landed in the best spot for a rookie to contribute early and often. By being opposite Odell Beckham Jr. he'll find himself in single coverage quite a lot and he's got the skills to beat those match-ups. At the combine, Shepard bench pressed the 225 pounds a total of 20 times (he tied Aaron Burbidge) which for his 5'10" 194 pound frame is very impressive. Corners trying to bump him off routes are going to find a brick wall instead. I know it's early, but several analysts have compared Shepard to Antonio Brown and their combine numbers are nearly identical if you go look. I also expect the G-Men to be throwing a ton making Shepard my early bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year Not Named Ezekiel Elliot.
(1.8) Size Does Matter
Jared Cook – Packers
Previous Pick: Corey Coleman
I know what you are thinking. This guy isn't a rookie. True. Jared Cook has been a sleeper candidate more times than any Tight End... well maybe Lardarius Green could be lumped in their too. If you're looking at just the rookie class it might be easy to forget that there is some talent to be found in last year's Free Agents. Cook will finally have a Quarterback to get him the ball on a consistent basis and allow him to stretch the field on mismatched defenders. It's going to be a crowded offense in Green Bay but Aaron Rodgers tried to get the ball to his fellow Rodgers quite often last season. Many times to his and my own chagrin. Cook is bigger and faster than Richard Rodgers, so barring chemistry issues he should be able to be productive and find himself in the top 10 of fantasy Tight Ends.
(1.9) Gold Standard
Devontae Booker - Broncos
Previous Pick: Keith Marshall
Here's another stab in the dark for Gold Standard looking to strike gold on Running Backs. Booker's value was hurt by him being selected to another crowded backfield. CJ Anderson just signed a multi-year deal and Ronnie Hillman is getting another year to try and prove his high draft selection, but that doesn't mean Booker is relegated to 3rd on the depth chart. I would like to echo the points brought up by other analysts who were quick to point out that the Broncos gave Anderson the lowest possible tender this offseason. It was only after the Dolphins tried to steal Anderson away did they up the ante and get Anderson under contract. That doesn't inspire confidence. I think Booker is the back that Elway and his coaches want to win the job and he'll get ample opportunity this preseason.
(1.10) Coach DadBod
(from Fat Eddie)
Will Fuller –
Texans
Previous Pick: Alex Collins
All you need to do is look at the roster and see that DadBod is severely lacking Wide Receivers. The offseason trade to acquire CJ Anderson also points the compass toward a wideout. At first brush, Michael Thomas makes sense because he probably has a better chance to produce immediately by having Drew Brees as his Quarterback. However, Brees is not long for the league and DadBod also has Saints receiver Willie Snead on his roster. That leaves Will Fuller a player that reminds me a lot of DeSean Jackson. He showed at the combine that no one is going to beat him in a foot race so all that Brock Osweiler needs to do is throw it up and let him go get it. I also think he's a smarter receiver than many analysts give him credit for and can run a robust route tree. However, he did struggle with drops on catchable balls at Notre Dame so the only worry is that he could be Ted Ginn 2.0. All picks come with some risk and this is one that Coach DadBod needs to make to round out his roster.
(1.11) Milk Steak (From Average Joe’s)
Michael Thomas – Saints
Previous Pick: Will Fuller
Milk Steak could have very easily gone with a Running Back here, especially after nabbing Sterling Shepard a four picks prior. But in adding Michael Thomas it gives the team the added dimension of a
prototypical outside wideout. James Jones is probably moving on, Andre Johnson's career is likely over and how much longer can you buy the preseason hype for Terrance Williams? I really like Thomas' landing spot in New
Orleans but I must admit that once Brees leaves, his long term value
becomes a huge question mark. In the meantime though, Thomas is a huge complement to Brandin Cooks and he should slide right into the spot vacated by Marques Colston. Because of the way the actual NFL Draft shook out, these picks all come with question marks but Thomas (and his NFL pedigree) make this pick a safer option than most.
(1.12) I Vincitori
Paul Perkins –
Giants
Previous Pick: Sterling Shepard
The NFL Draft really didn't like I Vincitori. I'm not sure if it was because he's the reigning champ or if it's because he's also a Patriots fan and deflategate's punishment spilled over to him as well. The first two Running Backs selected in this year's drafts ended up going to teams where I Vincitori also had a Running Back residing. DeMarco Murray's value took a small hit with Derrick Henry's hulking shadow waiting in the wings and Alfred Morris probably saw he's role become non-existent thanks to Ezekiel Elliott. I think Paul Perkins could be a tremendous asset should the team need to call on the rookie to tote the rock for a few weeks. The wheels are going to fall off for Rashad Jennings much
sooner than later, Andre Williams is the epitome of bust, and Shane
Vereen doesn't offer much beyond top-tier ball-catching skills. Paul
Perkins is a complete back who didn't get much publicity by playing on
the west coast. His resume checks off all the necessary skills to be an
early down back along with the added benefits of being an extremely
capable pass catcher. I have to believe that Ben McAdoo had a say in
getting a running back to fit his system and that would be Perkins.
UPDATE:
Given the error I made in last night's mock, I updated the post to include Milk Steak's second 1st Round Selection that he acquired from the Joe's in the Randall Cobb trade (yes there were more folks involved but let's face it, Cobb was the centerpiece of this trade). Then this morning whilst updating the post, there was another trade. the P90X Eddies moved back with Size Does Matter (ironic right? Because Eddie lost a lot of weight.... <crickets> ... nobody? Ok I'm done). That trade obviously shakes up the entire landscape of the trade and the analysis on my part so I'm just going to go through the picks 1.1 through 1.12 and give my new selections. Enjoy!
(1.1) Tom-a-Hank:
Ezekiel Elliott - Cowboys
(1.2) Average Joe's:
Corey Coleman - Browns
(1.3) For Narnia:
Derrick Henry - Titans
(1.4) Size Does Matter (From Fat Eddie):
Laquon Treadwell - Vikings
(1.5) DaBert:
Sterling Shepard - Giants
(1.6) Gold Standard:
Kenneth Dixon - Ravens
(1.7) Milk Steak:
Josh Doctson - Redskins
(1.8) Fat Eddie (From Size Does Matter):
Devontae Booker - Broncos
(1.9) Gold Standard:
Paul Perkins - Giants
(1.10) Coach DadBod:
Jared Cook - Packers
(1.11) Milk Steak (From Average Joe's):
Will Fuller - Texans
(1.12) I Vincitori:
Tyler Boyd - Bengals
.... Wait? Boyd not Thomas?.... Why?...
